Generation Gaps of the Future
"Today, I believe we are seeing two powerful trends that will alter the way work is accomplished and people are managed in organizations," writes Jay Jamrog, executive director at the Human Resource Institute, in a new paper called "The Changing Nature of the Workforce: Today's Generations at Work."
The first of these two trends is a shortage of labor, especially skilled labor. Jamrog argues that, despite today's record layoffs, the next several decades will be marked by serious shortages, given normal economic growth. Over the last 35 years, the U.S. labor market burgeoned due to the influx of the enormous Baby Boom generation and the increased labor force participation rates of women. That trend has run its course. In coming years, many Boomers will retire, women's participation rates will stabilize, and overall labor force growth will slow.
The second powerful trend cited by Jamrog is the rise of the most multigenerational workforce in recent history. For years, the retirement age of U.S. workers has been declining, but now there are signs of a reversal. For example, about three quarters of HR professionals responding to HRI's recent "The Changing Workforce" survey reported that a greater proportion of workers in their sixties are continuing to work, at least part time. This trend will probably continue for a variety of reasons: longer life spans, the recent repeal of the Social Security earning limit penalty, the low savings rate of many Americans, and other factors.
To the degree that older workers stay in the labor force, it will help ameliorate labor shortages, but it will also help create a workforce that is highly diverse in terms of its attitudes and values. In fact, there are already signs that different age cohorts don't blend particularly well in the workplace. Well over half of respondents to HRI's "The Changing Workforce" survey either disagreed or strongly disagreed with the assertion that different generations blend as they work together and that age is not a major factor at work. As the next generation of young people enters the workplace in coming years, multiple generation gaps may increase such conflicts.
In a tight but age-diverse labor market, managers will need to both understand and accommodate workers from each of four generations: the Depression generation (born 1927 to 1945), the Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964), the Baby Busters (1965 to 1983), and the Baby Boomlet (1984 to 2002). The one-size-fits-all style of management that was prevalent in times of labor surpluses will not be effective in the future.
Perhaps the greatest challenge of all will be to retain younger employees, who tend to be less loyal to employers than their older colleagues. Jamrog argues that the Baby Busters, having been raised in an era of routine downsizing and restructuring, have their own take on employee loyalty. "Instead of being loyal to their companies, today's workers, especially the younger ones, are more likely to be loyal to their professions, to the projects they're working on, and to their immediate supervisors," Jamrog writes. "The strategies that employers of choice are using to recruit, retain and motivate young people rely less heavily on traditional pay and benefits and more on creating a work environment that allows people to grow and develop."
But creating this type of environment won't be easy. Jamrog believes that today's young people crave leaders who will forge close ties with them and inspire them. Yet, in recent years restructurings have increased many supervisors' spans of control so much that there's not enough time in the day to do what needs to be done: manage "by walking around," give lots of positive reinforcement, and become a good coach, mentor and teacher. In the coming decades, there will be plenty of pressure on employers to both increase spans of control for the sake of efficiency and decrease those spans for the sake of managerial effectiveness. Organizations will be forced to address this paradox in tomorrow's tight labor market.
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The first of these two trends is a shortage of labor, especially skilled labor. Jamrog argues that, despite today's record layoffs, the next several decades will be marked by serious shortages, given normal economic growth. Over the last 35 years, the U.S. labor market burgeoned due to the influx of the enormous Baby Boom generation and the increased labor force participation rates of women. That trend has run its course. In coming years, many Boomers will retire, women's participation rates will stabilize, and overall labor force growth will slow.
The second powerful trend cited by Jamrog is the rise of the most multigenerational workforce in recent history. For years, the retirement age of U.S. workers has been declining, but now there are signs of a reversal. For example, about three quarters of HR professionals responding to HRI's recent "The Changing Workforce" survey reported that a greater proportion of workers in their sixties are continuing to work, at least part time. This trend will probably continue for a variety of reasons: longer life spans, the recent repeal of the Social Security earning limit penalty, the low savings rate of many Americans, and other factors.
To the degree that older workers stay in the labor force, it will help ameliorate labor shortages, but it will also help create a workforce that is highly diverse in terms of its attitudes and values. In fact, there are already signs that different age cohorts don't blend particularly well in the workplace. Well over half of respondents to HRI's "The Changing Workforce" survey either disagreed or strongly disagreed with the assertion that different generations blend as they work together and that age is not a major factor at work. As the next generation of young people enters the workplace in coming years, multiple generation gaps may increase such conflicts.
In a tight but age-diverse labor market, managers will need to both understand and accommodate workers from each of four generations: the Depression generation (born 1927 to 1945), the Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964), the Baby Busters (1965 to 1983), and the Baby Boomlet (1984 to 2002). The one-size-fits-all style of management that was prevalent in times of labor surpluses will not be effective in the future.
Perhaps the greatest challenge of all will be to retain younger employees, who tend to be less loyal to employers than their older colleagues. Jamrog argues that the Baby Busters, having been raised in an era of routine downsizing and restructuring, have their own take on employee loyalty. "Instead of being loyal to their companies, today's workers, especially the younger ones, are more likely to be loyal to their professions, to the projects they're working on, and to their immediate supervisors," Jamrog writes. "The strategies that employers of choice are using to recruit, retain and motivate young people rely less heavily on traditional pay and benefits and more on creating a work environment that allows people to grow and develop."
But creating this type of environment won't be easy. Jamrog believes that today's young people crave leaders who will forge close ties with them and inspire them. Yet, in recent years restructurings have increased many supervisors' spans of control so much that there's not enough time in the day to do what needs to be done: manage "by walking around," give lots of positive reinforcement, and become a good coach, mentor and teacher. In the coming decades, there will be plenty of pressure on employers to both increase spans of control for the sake of efficiency and decrease those spans for the sake of managerial effectiveness. Organizations will be forced to address this paradox in tomorrow's tight labor market.
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