The Young Global Workforce of the Future
Picture a group of people as large as the entire labor force of all the developed nations in 1990. Then imagine them all as young people, still unpolished but with plenty of potential. Then think about the huge socioeconomic impact they would have on the world as they all mature together, making homes, raising families, becoming more productive as they gain experience in the workforce. Such a vast group would put the vaunted baby boom generation to shame with its sheer immensity.
Now stop imagining. This group of young people is real and has so far received amazingly little notice in the business press, perhaps because most of them live in developing nations. Today, there are over 1 billion people between the ages of 10 and 19. Fully 85% live in developing nations. And soon they will be working or looking for work, if they aren't already. Between the years 1998 and 2010, 700 million young people will enter the labor force in developing countries. (In comparison, the entire U.S. population is just 275 million.)
What will these young workers be like? Of course, the world is far too diverse to make massive generalizations. There are, however, some basic trends. First, they are more likely than their parents to have primary-school education. This doesn't mean that there aren't still appalling education deficiencies. In fact, 130 million children of school age are growing up without access to basic education. In particular, girls are being deprived, representing 60% of the children not in school. Moreover, in millions of cases, children have been forced out of school and into the labor force, often working in extremely hazardous conditions.
The good news is that in almost every region, school enrollment has been on the rise since the early 1980s. In South Asia, for example, net primary-school enrollment rose from 61% in 1980 to 72% in 1996. In North Africa and the Middle East, enrollment rose from 75% to 85% during the same period. And in East Asian and Pacific Rim countries, it rose from 79% to 98%.
Another trend is that, although far too many children still suffer from deadly illnesses (including those who are victims of the HIV pandemic), the so-called under-five mortality rate has been declining in most nations since the 1960s. This is a United Nations-backed method of measuring the level of child well-being and its rate of change. Rate declines are good news because they usually indicate better nutrition, higher levels of immunization, a greater availability of health services, and other positive environmental factors.
A third and more alarming trend is that many young people entering the workforce in the coming years will have been injured and/or emotionally hardened in the regional conflicts that have spread like brush fires across much of the world. As Scientific American recently reported, "Every day, around the world, children are abducted and recruited into armed forces. An estimated 300,000 children are actively participating in 36 ongoing (or recently ended) conflicts in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Americas and the former Soviet Union." Of course, even more likely than abduction is victimization. Millions of children are the victims of wars and bloody ethnic conflicts, traumatized in both body and mind.
A fourth trend is that many of these young people will have grown up in poverty. In fact, the United Nations reports that more children today live in poverty than was the case ten years ago. Over the last two decades, even while the world economy has grown tremendously, the number of people living in poverty grew to more than 1.2 billion globally. Of that number, more than 600 million were children. The global inequality between the rich and the poor has also widened in recent years.
These trends will raise the level of real diversity in the global workforce. The majority of the young people entering the workforce in the near future will come from cultural and economic backgrounds that are often quite different from those of their colleagues in industrialized nations. They may not be as well educated as their developed-nation counterparts, but many will be healthy, literate and eager to learn, quite capable of making significant business contributions. Having grown up with less wealth, they may place a great deal of value on economic well-being and stability. They may also put a greater emphasis on family, having been less likely to grow up in social welfare systems. And, as adults, some will inevitably have been scarred by childhood experiences of war and abuse.
Of course, generalizing too much about such a huge portion of humanity is unwise. Businesses that employ and market to the young workers of the near future will need to assess them according to their specific cultural and individual circumstances. But, especially for multinational businesses, it is not too early to begin analyzing how this huge demographic group will affect the global economy and, in particular, the global workforce.
NOTE: If any reader feels his or her firm has developed business practices or strategies that address the international demographic and social trends outlined here, we'd love to hear more about it. Please write to vickers@HRInstitute.info.
====================================================
For more information on the state of the world's children, please see
http://www.unicef.org/sowc00/
For an analysis of the different age generations in the world, see
http://www.unfpa.org/swp/1998/thestate.htm
For information on the effect that regional wars are having on today's children, see "Children of the Gun" in the June 2000 edition of Scientific American. A related article can be found at
http://www.sciam.com/2000/0600issue/0600boutwell.html.
Now stop imagining. This group of young people is real and has so far received amazingly little notice in the business press, perhaps because most of them live in developing nations. Today, there are over 1 billion people between the ages of 10 and 19. Fully 85% live in developing nations. And soon they will be working or looking for work, if they aren't already. Between the years 1998 and 2010, 700 million young people will enter the labor force in developing countries. (In comparison, the entire U.S. population is just 275 million.)
What will these young workers be like? Of course, the world is far too diverse to make massive generalizations. There are, however, some basic trends. First, they are more likely than their parents to have primary-school education. This doesn't mean that there aren't still appalling education deficiencies. In fact, 130 million children of school age are growing up without access to basic education. In particular, girls are being deprived, representing 60% of the children not in school. Moreover, in millions of cases, children have been forced out of school and into the labor force, often working in extremely hazardous conditions.
The good news is that in almost every region, school enrollment has been on the rise since the early 1980s. In South Asia, for example, net primary-school enrollment rose from 61% in 1980 to 72% in 1996. In North Africa and the Middle East, enrollment rose from 75% to 85% during the same period. And in East Asian and Pacific Rim countries, it rose from 79% to 98%.
Another trend is that, although far too many children still suffer from deadly illnesses (including those who are victims of the HIV pandemic), the so-called under-five mortality rate has been declining in most nations since the 1960s. This is a United Nations-backed method of measuring the level of child well-being and its rate of change. Rate declines are good news because they usually indicate better nutrition, higher levels of immunization, a greater availability of health services, and other positive environmental factors.
A third and more alarming trend is that many young people entering the workforce in the coming years will have been injured and/or emotionally hardened in the regional conflicts that have spread like brush fires across much of the world. As Scientific American recently reported, "Every day, around the world, children are abducted and recruited into armed forces. An estimated 300,000 children are actively participating in 36 ongoing (or recently ended) conflicts in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Americas and the former Soviet Union." Of course, even more likely than abduction is victimization. Millions of children are the victims of wars and bloody ethnic conflicts, traumatized in both body and mind.
A fourth trend is that many of these young people will have grown up in poverty. In fact, the United Nations reports that more children today live in poverty than was the case ten years ago. Over the last two decades, even while the world economy has grown tremendously, the number of people living in poverty grew to more than 1.2 billion globally. Of that number, more than 600 million were children. The global inequality between the rich and the poor has also widened in recent years.
These trends will raise the level of real diversity in the global workforce. The majority of the young people entering the workforce in the near future will come from cultural and economic backgrounds that are often quite different from those of their colleagues in industrialized nations. They may not be as well educated as their developed-nation counterparts, but many will be healthy, literate and eager to learn, quite capable of making significant business contributions. Having grown up with less wealth, they may place a great deal of value on economic well-being and stability. They may also put a greater emphasis on family, having been less likely to grow up in social welfare systems. And, as adults, some will inevitably have been scarred by childhood experiences of war and abuse.
Of course, generalizing too much about such a huge portion of humanity is unwise. Businesses that employ and market to the young workers of the near future will need to assess them according to their specific cultural and individual circumstances. But, especially for multinational businesses, it is not too early to begin analyzing how this huge demographic group will affect the global economy and, in particular, the global workforce.
NOTE: If any reader feels his or her firm has developed business practices or strategies that address the international demographic and social trends outlined here, we'd love to hear more about it. Please write to vickers@HRInstitute.info.
====================================================
For more information on the state of the world's children, please see
http://www.unicef.org/sowc00/
For an analysis of the different age generations in the world, see
http://www.unfpa.org/swp/1998/thestate.htm
For information on the effect that regional wars are having on today's children, see "Children of the Gun" in the June 2000 edition of Scientific American. A related article can be found at
http://www.sciam.com/2000/0600issue/0600boutwell.html.