Superhuman Resources
The world is on the cusp of the most incredible transformation in human history, argue many of the thinkers interviewed by Joel Garreau in his new book, Radical Evolution. What’s more, thanks to a dynamic Garreau calls The Curve, this transformation could come sooner than many believe.
In essence, the book describes how the human race is caught up in a wave of change that could alter not only our lives but our very natures as a result of GRIN technologies – that is, genetic, robotic, information and nano processes. If true, the next few decades will bring about workforce management challenges seldom even imagined before.
At the root of all this is the very rapid – and often exponential – growth in the rate of technological change. By now, most people are familiar with Moore’s Law, which states that the processing power of computer chips doubles every 18 months or so. What’s less known is that exponential growth has become a trend in lots of other areas.
“Human genes mapped per year – doubling time, 18 months. Resolution of brain-scanning devices – doubling time, 12 months. Growth in personal and service robots – doubling time, 9 months,” writes Garreau (p. 59). Then there’s exponential growth in the size of the Internet (12 months), the amount of computer memory per dollar (15 months), and Internet bandwidth backbone (12 months). The list goes on, and it may have some astonishing repercussions. Radical Evolution quotes Rodney Brooks, director of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: “My thesis is that in just 20 years the boundary between fantasy and reality will be rent asunder” (p. 5).
In fact, some thinkers argue that the change curve is rising so fast that the human race is approaching what some call a singularity, a term taken from math and physics. In the cosmic phenomenon known as black holes, the theory goes, there’s “a rift in the continuum of space and time where Einstein's rules no longer function,” writes James John Bell in THE FUTURIST. “The approaching technological Singularity, like the singularities of black holes, marks a point of departure from reality. Explorers once wrote ‘Beyond here be dragons’ on the edges of old maps of the known world, and the image of life as we approach these edges of change are proving to be just as mysterious, dangerous, and controversial” (2003).
In an academic paper that writer Vernor Vinge presented to NASA in 1993, he argued that by 2030, a singularity would likely be brought about by the creation of a superhuman intelligence. This might be driven by the emergence of supersmart machines, but it could also be the result of biologically enhanced human intelligence or of more intimate and powerful interfaces between humans and computers (Vinge, 1993).
Consider the rush of new technologies waiting in the wings. Some of these will enhance human thinking, while others could change people at the level of DNA. In one example, Prof. Theodore W. Berger of the Center for Neural Engineering at the University of Southern California is working on a computer chip that imitates the functioning of the human hippocampus, which is known to help generate memories (Sandhana, 2004). The technology is seen as a potential neural prosthesis for people with memory disorders, but Garreau implies it could enhance normal people, giving them virtually perfect recall.
There’s also a great deal of research being conducted by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which pioneered the Internet and is now, according to Garreau, “at the forefront of the engineered evolution of mankind” (p. 23). DARPA is working on research projects focused on such sci-fi-sounding goals as enabling soldiers to grow back human limbs, making it possible for human beings to function without sleep, creating immune systems that can fight off biological attacks, and devising brain-machine interfaces. The U.S. Army already has a prototype of an exoskeleton suit that gives soldiers superhuman strength. And today the biology is available to allow scientists to enhance human athletic performance via “gene doping.”
For employers, the future possibilities are dazzling and frightening at the same time. Imagine, for example,
Of course, it’s impossible to know how much of this will materialize or when it might occur. But, given the exponential properties of The Curve, the future could arrive faster than we’re prepared to manage it.
For more information on Joel Garreau and Radical Evolution, click here.
For an article on “The Singularity” as published in THE FUTURIST magazine, click here.
For a Wired News article on high-tech memory enhancement, click here.
For a copy of the paper Vernor Vinge presented to NASA, click here.
Documents used in the preparation of this TrendWatcher include:
Bell , James John. “Exploring the ‘Singularity.’” THE FUTURIST, ProQuest, May/June 2003.
Garreau, Joel. Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies – and What It Means to Be Human. New York: Doubleday, 2005.
Sandhana, Lakshmi. “Chips Coming to a Brain Near You.” Wired News, October 22, 2004.
Vinge, Vernor. Article presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993.
In essence, the book describes how the human race is caught up in a wave of change that could alter not only our lives but our very natures as a result of GRIN technologies – that is, genetic, robotic, information and nano processes. If true, the next few decades will bring about workforce management challenges seldom even imagined before.
At the root of all this is the very rapid – and often exponential – growth in the rate of technological change. By now, most people are familiar with Moore’s Law, which states that the processing power of computer chips doubles every 18 months or so. What’s less known is that exponential growth has become a trend in lots of other areas.
“Human genes mapped per year – doubling time, 18 months. Resolution of brain-scanning devices – doubling time, 12 months. Growth in personal and service robots – doubling time, 9 months,” writes Garreau (p. 59). Then there’s exponential growth in the size of the Internet (12 months), the amount of computer memory per dollar (15 months), and Internet bandwidth backbone (12 months). The list goes on, and it may have some astonishing repercussions. Radical Evolution quotes Rodney Brooks, director of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: “My thesis is that in just 20 years the boundary between fantasy and reality will be rent asunder” (p. 5).
In fact, some thinkers argue that the change curve is rising so fast that the human race is approaching what some call a singularity, a term taken from math and physics. In the cosmic phenomenon known as black holes, the theory goes, there’s “a rift in the continuum of space and time where Einstein's rules no longer function,” writes James John Bell in THE FUTURIST. “The approaching technological Singularity, like the singularities of black holes, marks a point of departure from reality. Explorers once wrote ‘Beyond here be dragons’ on the edges of old maps of the known world, and the image of life as we approach these edges of change are proving to be just as mysterious, dangerous, and controversial” (2003).
In an academic paper that writer Vernor Vinge presented to NASA in 1993, he argued that by 2030, a singularity would likely be brought about by the creation of a superhuman intelligence. This might be driven by the emergence of supersmart machines, but it could also be the result of biologically enhanced human intelligence or of more intimate and powerful interfaces between humans and computers (Vinge, 1993).
Consider the rush of new technologies waiting in the wings. Some of these will enhance human thinking, while others could change people at the level of DNA. In one example, Prof. Theodore W. Berger of the Center for Neural Engineering at the University of Southern California is working on a computer chip that imitates the functioning of the human hippocampus, which is known to help generate memories (Sandhana, 2004). The technology is seen as a potential neural prosthesis for people with memory disorders, but Garreau implies it could enhance normal people, giving them virtually perfect recall.
There’s also a great deal of research being conducted by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which pioneered the Internet and is now, according to Garreau, “at the forefront of the engineered evolution of mankind” (p. 23). DARPA is working on research projects focused on such sci-fi-sounding goals as enabling soldiers to grow back human limbs, making it possible for human beings to function without sleep, creating immune systems that can fight off biological attacks, and devising brain-machine interfaces. The U.S. Army already has a prototype of an exoskeleton suit that gives soldiers superhuman strength. And today the biology is available to allow scientists to enhance human athletic performance via “gene doping.”
For employers, the future possibilities are dazzling and frightening at the same time. Imagine, for example,
- computer-enabled telepathy in the workplace
- superstrong construction workers
- professionals with flawless memories who can absorb massive amounts of information in a fraction of the time it takes today
- a virtual end to the traditional idea of physical disabilities but new dilemmas in regard to the hiring and management of “enhanced humans”
- medical benefit debates about who pays for enhancements
- customized thinking machines that increasingly take over the work of both manual and skilled labor in organizations
- a neo-Luddite movement that involves sabotage in the workplace
Of course, it’s impossible to know how much of this will materialize or when it might occur. But, given the exponential properties of The Curve, the future could arrive faster than we’re prepared to manage it.
For more information on Joel Garreau and Radical Evolution, click here.
For an article on “The Singularity” as published in THE FUTURIST magazine, click here.
For a Wired News article on high-tech memory enhancement, click here.
For a copy of the paper Vernor Vinge presented to NASA, click here.
Documents used in the preparation of this TrendWatcher include:
Bell , James John. “Exploring the ‘Singularity.’” THE FUTURIST, ProQuest, May/June 2003.
Garreau, Joel. Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies – and What It Means to Be Human. New York: Doubleday, 2005.
Sandhana, Lakshmi. “Chips Coming to a Brain Near You.” Wired News, October 22, 2004.
Vinge, Vernor. Article presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993.