Work-Transforming Technologies
For all our high-tech advances, nobody has yet produced a crystal ball that lets us accurately foresee just how new technologies will affect the world of work. But this hasn’t stopped a lot of people from making their best guesses. Below are three of the emerging technology trends that could transform the way work is done in the not-too-distant future.
3-D Printing – The idea of “printing out” objects may seem like science fiction to those who still have trouble keeping the office ink-jet printer from jamming. But 3-D printing technology is already two-decades old and is fast moving into new markets (Kren, 2004). The company Stratasys, which provides office prototyping and 3D printing solutions, now sells a $24,900 machine, which means even small businesses can design and then print out prototypes in three dimensions (Nelson, 2004).
As 3-D printing changes the world of design, some believe the technology could potentially transform the world of manufacturing. “Teams at Cornell University, MIT and the University of California at Berkeley have been quietly developing processes that adapt ink-jet printing technology to build ready-to-use products, complete with working circuitry, switches and movable parts,” reports Business 2.0 (Maier, 2004).
This means that future 3-D printers might one day produce real products, not just prototypes. These products could be locally produced and customized to individual customers (Hibbert, 2004). This type of mass customization could dramatically decentralize the manufacturing process for many products, turning the factory-driven model on its head.
There would, for example, be less emphasis on die-makers and more on product designers. The idea of shipping operations overseas to take advantage of labor costs might become an antiquated concept in some industries. Unions could lose portions of their membership as traditional shop floors disappear, and employees capable of keeping 3-D printers up and running could become hot commodities in the labor market.
Robots – “I am convinced robots today are where computers were in 1978,” writes Rodney Brooks, director of MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Chairman of iRobot Corp. He thinks that in just another decade and half, “robots will be everywhere, as e-mail and the Web are now” (2004).
Already, of course, industrial robots have transformed the manufacturing sector, and investments in such robotics are growing. The North American market for robots shot up 28% in 2003 and the Japanese market by almost 25%, according to data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe in cooperation with the International Federation of Robotics. At a global level, orders for industrial robots rose 18% faster in the first half of 2004 than in 2003, reaching the highest levels in history (2004).
But robots won’t stay confined to the industrial sector, where they mostly do repetitive but high-precision work. Brooks notes, for example, that robots may well take over the jobs of today’s migrant laborers as the machines get better at recognizing and manipulating fruits and vegetables.
Robots are also moving into the service sector, both by taking over certain household chores and some of the work done by service professionals. “At the end of 2003, about 610,000 autonomous vacuum cleaners and lawn-mowing robots were in operation. In 2004-2007, more than 4 million new units are forecasted to be added,” reports World Robots 2004. Some experts believe robots will also soon be helping parents watch over their children and assist disabled or elderly people (Lewis, 2005). Brooks concludes that robots will ultimately transform “immigration patterns and the massive shift of labor from developed to developing countries” (2004).
Information Pervasion – It’s hard to label this trend because it’s made up of various technologies such as wireless networks, mobile computing gadgets, and new information storage devices. But the general trend is toward the creation of a pervasive wired and wireless network that works in conjunction with a range of computing/communication machines. Meanwhile, next-generation computer chips, information-storage devices and – probably further down the line – energy-storage devices will allow the wireless devices to become powerful machines indeed. One estimate is that by 2010, portable media devices will have enough storage capacity to hold “the entire Disney animation library” (Malik, 2004).
With such technologies, workers may one day be able to send, access and capture huge stores of information virtually anytime, anywhere. Even when traveling, employees will be able to quickly swap everything from design specs to legal briefs to training videos. It will be as if knowledge workers have enormous auxiliary memories they can readily share with colleagues. The real trick will be learning to swim rather than drown in the portable torrent of information.
For a Technology Review article called “10 Emerging Technologies that Will Change Your World,” click here.
For a Fortune magazine series of articles on technology trends to watch in 2005, click here.
Subscribers to Business 2.0 will find an article called “Seven New Technologies that Will Change Everything” by clicking here.
For a “World Robotics 2004” press release, click here.
The Churchill Club, a Silicon Valley business and technology forum, lists ten technology trends. Click here.
Documents used in the preparation of this TrendWatcher follow:
Brooks, Rodney. “The Robots Are Here.” Technology Review, February 2004, p. 30.
Hibbert, Lee. “An Individual Approach.” Professional Engineering. ProQuest. October 20, 2004.
Kren, Lawrence. “The Future of CAD: Driving Revolution in 3D.” Machine Design. ProQuest. July 22, 2004.
Lewis, Peter H. “Iraq’s Robot Invasion.” Fortune, January 10, 2005.
Maier, Matthew. “Manufacturing: A Factory in Every Home.” Business 2.0, ProQuest. September 2004.
Malik, Om. “Consumer Devices: Terabytes to Go.” Business 2.0. ProQuest. September 2004.
Nelson, Brett. “Almost Out of the Woods.” Forbes, September 20, 2004.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. “World Robotics 2004.” Press release, October 2004.
3-D Printing – The idea of “printing out” objects may seem like science fiction to those who still have trouble keeping the office ink-jet printer from jamming. But 3-D printing technology is already two-decades old and is fast moving into new markets (Kren, 2004). The company Stratasys, which provides office prototyping and 3D printing solutions, now sells a $24,900 machine, which means even small businesses can design and then print out prototypes in three dimensions (Nelson, 2004).
As 3-D printing changes the world of design, some believe the technology could potentially transform the world of manufacturing. “Teams at Cornell University, MIT and the University of California at Berkeley have been quietly developing processes that adapt ink-jet printing technology to build ready-to-use products, complete with working circuitry, switches and movable parts,” reports Business 2.0 (Maier, 2004).
This means that future 3-D printers might one day produce real products, not just prototypes. These products could be locally produced and customized to individual customers (Hibbert, 2004). This type of mass customization could dramatically decentralize the manufacturing process for many products, turning the factory-driven model on its head.
There would, for example, be less emphasis on die-makers and more on product designers. The idea of shipping operations overseas to take advantage of labor costs might become an antiquated concept in some industries. Unions could lose portions of their membership as traditional shop floors disappear, and employees capable of keeping 3-D printers up and running could become hot commodities in the labor market.
Robots – “I am convinced robots today are where computers were in 1978,” writes Rodney Brooks, director of MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and Chairman of iRobot Corp. He thinks that in just another decade and half, “robots will be everywhere, as e-mail and the Web are now” (2004).
Already, of course, industrial robots have transformed the manufacturing sector, and investments in such robotics are growing. The North American market for robots shot up 28% in 2003 and the Japanese market by almost 25%, according to data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe in cooperation with the International Federation of Robotics. At a global level, orders for industrial robots rose 18% faster in the first half of 2004 than in 2003, reaching the highest levels in history (2004).
But robots won’t stay confined to the industrial sector, where they mostly do repetitive but high-precision work. Brooks notes, for example, that robots may well take over the jobs of today’s migrant laborers as the machines get better at recognizing and manipulating fruits and vegetables.
Robots are also moving into the service sector, both by taking over certain household chores and some of the work done by service professionals. “At the end of 2003, about 610,000 autonomous vacuum cleaners and lawn-mowing robots were in operation. In 2004-2007, more than 4 million new units are forecasted to be added,” reports World Robots 2004. Some experts believe robots will also soon be helping parents watch over their children and assist disabled or elderly people (Lewis, 2005). Brooks concludes that robots will ultimately transform “immigration patterns and the massive shift of labor from developed to developing countries” (2004).
Information Pervasion – It’s hard to label this trend because it’s made up of various technologies such as wireless networks, mobile computing gadgets, and new information storage devices. But the general trend is toward the creation of a pervasive wired and wireless network that works in conjunction with a range of computing/communication machines. Meanwhile, next-generation computer chips, information-storage devices and – probably further down the line – energy-storage devices will allow the wireless devices to become powerful machines indeed. One estimate is that by 2010, portable media devices will have enough storage capacity to hold “the entire Disney animation library” (Malik, 2004).
With such technologies, workers may one day be able to send, access and capture huge stores of information virtually anytime, anywhere. Even when traveling, employees will be able to quickly swap everything from design specs to legal briefs to training videos. It will be as if knowledge workers have enormous auxiliary memories they can readily share with colleagues. The real trick will be learning to swim rather than drown in the portable torrent of information.
For a Technology Review article called “10 Emerging Technologies that Will Change Your World,” click here.
For a Fortune magazine series of articles on technology trends to watch in 2005, click here.
Subscribers to Business 2.0 will find an article called “Seven New Technologies that Will Change Everything” by clicking here.
For a “World Robotics 2004” press release, click here.
The Churchill Club, a Silicon Valley business and technology forum, lists ten technology trends. Click here.
Documents used in the preparation of this TrendWatcher follow:
Brooks, Rodney. “The Robots Are Here.” Technology Review, February 2004, p. 30.
Hibbert, Lee. “An Individual Approach.” Professional Engineering. ProQuest. October 20, 2004.
Kren, Lawrence. “The Future of CAD: Driving Revolution in 3D.” Machine Design. ProQuest. July 22, 2004.
Lewis, Peter H. “Iraq’s Robot Invasion.” Fortune, January 10, 2005.
Maier, Matthew. “Manufacturing: A Factory in Every Home.” Business 2.0, ProQuest. September 2004.
Malik, Om. “Consumer Devices: Terabytes to Go.” Business 2.0. ProQuest. September 2004.
Nelson, Brett. “Almost Out of the Woods.” Forbes, September 20, 2004.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. “World Robotics 2004.” Press release, October 2004.