The Uncertainty of Trend Lines
Predicting the future based on linear projections of current trends often leads to bad forecasting. That’s because the factors driving trends tend to change. The world’s population, for example, is not expected to keep growing at current rates over the long haul because factors such as education, birth control, and economic development are likely to slow those rates.
Sometimes the factors that will change a trend are relatively predictable, as with human population growth, but other times they’re very difficult to discern. Even the most seemingly straightforward trends can turn out to be maddeningly hard to predict.
Just a few years ago, for example, most experts were forecasting a long-term shortage of U.S. computer programmers, basing their assessments on current industry growth and on the percentages of college students earning programming degrees. Today, due to the dot-com crash and the offshoring of IT jobs, there’s been no general shortage of programmers (though specific skills remain scarce) and it’s not clear just how severe a shortage will become as more jobs are transferred abroad.
Similarly, many observers have predicted that a combination of trends – especially the retirement of baby boomers – will result in a severe U.S. labor shortage. To some degree, shortages are likely to occur, especially for skilled jobs, but various factors could ameliorate this trend. These include increases in service productivity, the globalization of the workforce, improved education technologies, better health among older Americans, and a reversal of the trend toward early retirement.
Indeed, uncertainty is a part and parcel of many workforce trends, including ideas about the art of management. Consider leadership, which Human Resource Institute survey respondents have identified as the most critical issue affecting the management of people. For years, much of the literature proclaimed that the primary job of leaders was to forge a vision and develop an overarching strategy, leaving the detail work to others. Then came the financial hard times, and much of the conventional wisdom of the 1990s went out the window.
Suddenly, there was less interest – both on boards of directors and in the business media – in celebrity CEOs with grand visions and more interest in humble leaders with a firm grasp of the day- to-day details of doing business. And more corporations have come to crave leaders who are highly adept at the execution, not just the development, of strategies.
What are some of the factors that will affect other workforce trends in the future? Below is just a sampling of a few factors to keep an eye on.
Although it’s impossible to predict when and how every trend will change, it’s important to keep in mind that trends do change all the time. Tomorrow will not be like today. The best way to prepare for it is by scanning the business environment, analyzing trends and the factors that could change them, imagining possible futures and, above all, staying adaptable.
Sometimes the factors that will change a trend are relatively predictable, as with human population growth, but other times they’re very difficult to discern. Even the most seemingly straightforward trends can turn out to be maddeningly hard to predict.
Just a few years ago, for example, most experts were forecasting a long-term shortage of U.S. computer programmers, basing their assessments on current industry growth and on the percentages of college students earning programming degrees. Today, due to the dot-com crash and the offshoring of IT jobs, there’s been no general shortage of programmers (though specific skills remain scarce) and it’s not clear just how severe a shortage will become as more jobs are transferred abroad.
Similarly, many observers have predicted that a combination of trends – especially the retirement of baby boomers – will result in a severe U.S. labor shortage. To some degree, shortages are likely to occur, especially for skilled jobs, but various factors could ameliorate this trend. These include increases in service productivity, the globalization of the workforce, improved education technologies, better health among older Americans, and a reversal of the trend toward early retirement.
Indeed, uncertainty is a part and parcel of many workforce trends, including ideas about the art of management. Consider leadership, which Human Resource Institute survey respondents have identified as the most critical issue affecting the management of people. For years, much of the literature proclaimed that the primary job of leaders was to forge a vision and develop an overarching strategy, leaving the detail work to others. Then came the financial hard times, and much of the conventional wisdom of the 1990s went out the window.
Suddenly, there was less interest – both on boards of directors and in the business media – in celebrity CEOs with grand visions and more interest in humble leaders with a firm grasp of the day- to-day details of doing business. And more corporations have come to crave leaders who are highly adept at the execution, not just the development, of strategies.
What are some of the factors that will affect other workforce trends in the future? Below is just a sampling of a few factors to keep an eye on.
- Technology – Information technologies have already had a major impact on workforce trends. For example, until recently there seemed to be little hope of significantly raising the productivity of service jobs, a problem so entrenched it actually acquired a name (“Baumol's disease”). Today, some economists argue this disease is being “cured” through a combination of new work processes and new technologies. This is changing the labor productivity landscape, yet it may be only the beginning. Future technologies could have a radical impact on trends related to urbanization, traditional work relationships, disability discrimination, and human memory, to name just a few.
- Culture and Value Conflicts – Due to globalization and world-spanning media, once relatively isolated cultures are clashing with one another as never before. What is considered good business practice in one culture is seen as unacceptable in another. What is considered a benefit among one group of employees is a virtual right among others. This may have an impact on everything from corporate ethics programs to leadership development. It also could affect the larger world of geopolitics. In fact, some experts view the current war on terrorism as part of a clash between opposing cultural viewpoints.
- Environmentalism and Resource Scarcity – Various experts predict a growing scarcity of everything from oil to fresh water in the next several decades. The impacts remain uncertain, but they could deeply affect a wide range of trends related to economic growth, inflation, worker mobility and compensation.
Although it’s impossible to predict when and how every trend will change, it’s important to keep in mind that trends do change all the time. Tomorrow will not be like today. The best way to prepare for it is by scanning the business environment, analyzing trends and the factors that could change them, imagining possible futures and, above all, staying adaptable.